Four years on from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and in the wake of a grim anniversary of hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths, we are once again watching an ugly conflict unfold.
On 28th February, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, unleashing yet more bloodshed on an Iranian people already oppressed by their own cruel regime.
The Iranian military have fired back at many of their neighbours in the Gulf, including at US and UK bases, and so yet again, the news warns of a full-blown conflict in the Middle East.
Donald Trump has since threatened Iran with ‘guaranteed death’, and even as the casualty count begins to mount across the region, the shipping lanes become dangerous and fuel prices begin rising. The economic consequences are already starting to be felt around the world.
If history has taught us anything, it is that the UK should not be dragged into another long Middle Eastern war by the whims of a US President.
At the outset, the US requested to access British bases for their military operations. That is said to have caused a clash around the cabinet table in Number 10 Downing Street, as many fear escalating the bombing may only put more British lives at risk.
Instead, the UK instructed the RAF to fly defensive operations: shooting down incoming missiles and drones, one of which nevertheless hit the runway at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus last week.
The United States has only been given permission to use British facilities for “defensive” operations, striking Iranian missile sites that pose a direct threat – conditions that prompted outrage from Donald Trump who accused the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer of being too slow, and unlike Sir Winston Churchill.
The irony is that Trump lacks the good qualities of either Roosevelt or Churchill, who coined the term “The Special Relationship” over eighty years ago. We have been reminded that the special relationship is a two-way street, and breaks down when the US president is so patently untrustworthy.
The danger of escalation is massive. In Parliament, the Liberal Democrats reaffirmed the need to protect our own citizens, and called for a Parliamentary vote to draw a clear line. The Prime Minister insists only an “offensive” strike by the UK will require a vote.
The Iranian people deserve a future free of repression, but bombing is not a plan for change. Nor is it a counter to Iranian-sponsored terrorism elsewhere. We cannot know how many civilians may be killed trying to force the Iranian government to submit, or what new monstrosity may take power in Tehran in the future, propelled by a fresh hatred of US airstrikes.
If international law is treated as optional, we start to resemble the same regimes we are resisting. Even as we shame President Putin for Russia’s barbaric attack on Ukraine, the West’s moral authority to condemn the unilateral use of force is being squandered by the White House.
Back at home in North Devon, we will soon see the consequences of Trump’s illegal attacks reflected in the cost of heating oil for rural homes, in petrol and diesel prices, and eventually everything else that must be shipped, flown or hauled by road. Choices made in the upper reaches of governments will be paid for in towns and kitchens much closer to home.
Earlier this week I spoke with the Foreign Secretary, who has clearly spent days on the phone with foreign governments, British embassies, and especially airlines.
There will be Britons in the region scared for their safety. The Foreign Office has said it is working to identify these people to enable emergency departures for those who need to leave quickly. If you know anyone in the area who has not already registered with the FCDO, please urge them to do so.
